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END OF THE ST. LOUIS BLUES?

In what has become an annual tradition amongst NFL sportswriters, Mike Florio of The Sporting News and ProFootballTalk.com is predicting that Seattle’s streak of four consecutive division titles will come to an end in 2008. While picking Seattle to stumble is nothing new for the “experts,” Florio broke ranks by NOT picking the perennial preseason darlings in Arizona. Instead, he believes that the St. Louis Rams will be the team to finally dethrone Seattle, citing the many injuries St. Louis suffered in 2007 as the primary cause of their 3-13 record.

Now, while it might be easy to dismiss anybody who believes that a 3-13 team is the next big thing in any division, Florio could be right. It’s hard to believe that St. Louis could suffer as many injuries again in 2008, after all. Josh Brown signed with St. Louis because he wanted to go to a “winning team,” and while that could just be new signee code for “they paid me the most but I can’t say that out loud,” maybe he saw something in that team that others have missed. And teams have gone from worst to first with surprisingly regularity in the NFL; the winner of the NFC South every season since realignment finished the previous year dead last in the division, though the Falcons are likely to break that streak this season. So the possibility certainly exists that St. Louis could recapture the division title. The question is whether this is a likely scenario.

One big reason to bet on St. Louis in 2008 is the play of Steven Jackson. Jackson, like everyone else on the roster, is coming off a disappointing season in which he barely rushed for 1,000 yards and made his preseason record-setting predictions look foolish. Yet Jackson is one of the best rushers in the game and the fact that 2008 will be a contract year for him only increases the odds that he will be successful. Jackson is a threat both on the ground and as a receiver (he caught 90 passes in 2006) and is the team’s best weapon at this point. If Jackson can have a good year in 2008, St. Louis’ odds for winning the division go up dramatically.

The problem for Jackson is that he needs people to block for him, and while St. Louis’ offensive line has been a weak spot for years, the injuries suffered last season completely decimated the unit. Those who bank on St. Louis’ return to the playoffs are counting on better production as well as the return of Orlando Pace, who missed virtually all of 2007 with a shoulder injury. The problem here is that even with Pace, the rest of St. Louis’ offensive line isn’t that great to begin with. Alex Barron has developed into a decent tackle but still makes too many mistakes. Richie Incognito is decent at guard but neither Brett Romberg nor Mark Setterstrom is good enough to man the center position. Let us not forget, also, that Pace missed the latter half of 2006 with a biceps injury prior to last season’s shoulder problems. Expecting Pace to avoid injury in 2008 might be wishful thinking.

Injury problems have also affected Mark Bulger, which is another reason why St. Louis’ offense could struggle even with Steven Jackson. Bulger posted career numbers in 2006 but that was the only time in his career that he has played a full 16-game season. Factor in that Bulger’s backups this season are Trent Green (who needs to retire before the next concussion kills him) Brock Berlin and/or Bruce Gradkowski, and an injury to Bulger could seriously hurt the Rams’ chances at a playoff spot. The receiving corps, once the best in the league, now features Torry Holt and several receivers who don’t strike fear into the hearts of any defensive coordinator. Holt was bothered by injuries last season and even his best days might be behind him.

Defensively, Jim Haslitt has earned St. Louis a bit of respectability after years of poor play. Adam Carriker made a solid impact as a rookie defensive tackle—breaking the Rams’ streak of first round DT busts—and will only improve with second overall pick Chris Long playing next to him. At linebacker, Will Witherspoon terrorized Matt Hasselbeck during the Hawks-Rams game in St. Louis and has proven he can be a playmaker. Leonard Little (when healthy) is still capable of notching double-digit sacks despite his age. Overall, the Rams’ front seven has quietly become one of the better units in the league.

However, the same cannot be said for the Rams secondary. Safety O. J. Atogwe had a breakout season in 2007 with 8 interceptions, but aside from Fakhir Brown’s 4 picks, only backup cornerback Ron Bartell had more than 1 INT (2 picks. Starters Tye Hill (1 pick) and Corey Chavous (0 picks) failed to make much of an impact. The Rams allowed 3,613 passing yards and 25 touchdowns in 2007, numbers that put them into the bottom third of the league. If Atogwe proves to be a one-hit wonder, St. Louis’ secondary could really struggle.

So there are reasons to believe the Rams will struggle as well as reasons to believe they will succeed. Which is more likely? A deciding factor in most teams’ success is how well they draft; the best teams in the NFL draft well year after year. If you take Seattle as an example, a large part of their success in 2008 will depend upon several young receivers who were drafted late or not drafted at all over the past few seasons. St. Louis, on the other hand, has struggled to draft well since their Super Bowl run in 1999. The Rams eight drafts from 2000 to 2007 have yielded only 8 total starters and one Pro Bowl player in Steven Jackson. That’s it. Several of their first round picks (Trung Canidate and Jimmy Kennedy come to mind) have been high profile busts. The jury is still out on recent draft picks such as Tye Hill and Alex Barron, but it would be fair to call both players disappointing at best. The Rams just have not drafted well in this decade, and the lack of good young talent coming in has hurt their depth and left them more susceptible to injury than they might be otherwise.

To summarize, the Rams are capable of winning the NFC West in 2008 but would need a lot of luck to do so. While they suffered an abnormally high number of injuries in 2007, the fact remains that several of their best players have been injury prone of late, and depth is a concern at many key positions. If everything rolls St. Louis’ way this season, they are capable of making a playoff run. More likely, they will finish around 8-8 at best and miss the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season.