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ROLL OF THE DICE—2012 DRAFT REVIEW

Bruce Irvin? Russell Wilson? What were Pete Carroll and John Schneider thinking?

That has been the reaction from most pundits and a large contingent of Seahawk fans who believe that Seattle’s 2012 draft was nothing less than an epic failure. They point to Irvin’s off field history and the fact that he is only a “one-trick pony”—a pass rusher and nothing else—and question the value of selecting him in the first round when the Seahawks had every pass rushing defensive lineman or linebacker still on the board. They point to Wilson’s stature and proclaim that there is no way that a 5’10 5/8” quarterback can be successful at the professional level (and don’t the Seahawks already have three quarterbacks?) This was not the draft that Seahawk fans were expecting. This was not the kind of draft that will get high grades from Mel Kiper, Mike Mayock, or other draft experts.

Does that make this draft a failure? Not in the least.

Ever since he returned to the NFL in 2010, Pete Carroll has frequently taken the road less traveled. Sometimes it works, such as his decision to move Red Bryant to defensive end or when he gutted the roster two years ago. Sometimes it doesn’t; Charlie Whitehurst and Tarvaris Jackson immediately come to mind here. That being said, what was the point of rolling the dice on Bruce Irvin, Russell Wilson, or even later round picks like Jaye Howard and projected guard J. R. Sweezy when there were “safer” players on the board who could fill the same needs?

Three years ago Seattle had their highest draft pick since 1993 and chose the “safest” player on the board in Aaron Curry. Six months ago the Seahawks traded him to Oakland for a seventh-round pick. There is no such thing as a “safe” draft pick.

Indeed, every one of the players that were favorites for Seattle’s first round pick had significant red flags. Quinton Coples’ work ethic was an issue. Melvin Ingram has short arms and may be a “jack of all trades, master of none” type of player. David DeCastro can be overpowered in the run game and has had struggles against interior pass rushers. The same holds true for some of the other quarterbacks Seattle could have taken on Day Two or Day Three like Kirk Cousins or Kellen Moore. All of these players are gambles to one degree or another.

Now, to say that there are no safe picks in the NFL draft is not to say that some picks aren’t safer than others. The knock on Irvin, Wilson, etc. isn’t so much that they are risks, it’s that in the eyes of many observers they are unacceptable risks, at least at the positions where they were drafted. Irvin has a history, like it or not, and questions surrounding his character aren’t going to go away until we see how he reacts to life in the NFL with a multi-million dollar contract. If the odds are against such a short quarterback succeeding at the professional level, weren’t there better uses for Seattle’s third round pick? While none of the other options for Seattle in this year’s draft are guarantees, there is no denying that the Seahawks are taking a big chance with some of their picks.

Here’s the thing, though: while Irvin, Wilson et al have higher risks than some of the other players available, they also have higher potential rewards. Even Irvin’s detractors concede that he is far and away the best pure edge rusher in the draft. Wilson is a born leader with a strong arm and incredible athletic ability, and has much more upside than Cousins or any of the other quarterbacks in this draft not named Luck or Griffin III. It will be a serious setback to this team’s long term success if Irvin or Wilson turn out to be busts. But if they are everything Pete Carroll and John Schneider hope they can be, Seattle could easily wind up with two of the very best players in this year’s draft class.

Is that possibility worth the increased risk of failure? Yes it is, because this team needs dynamic, game-changing players. They have one in Marshawn Lynch. They need one on defense. They need one at the quarterback position and putting all of the eggs in Matt Flynn’s basket would be a mistake with only two regular season games on his résumé. The Seahawks have to take some chances if they want to get back to the playoffs and make another run at a championship. Every draft pick is a risky proposition. Flynn and Wilson are riskier than most, but give the Seahawks a better shot at a Super Bowl if they pan out.

As teams get better, success only gets harder. It’s easier to bring a team back to respectability as Carroll has already done than to turn that team into a perennial playoff contender. It’s easier to be a playoff team than it is to be a team with a shot at a Super Bowl, and trying to build a true championship caliber football team is even harder than that. Carroll and Schneider took two big gambles this week with players that they have known and were very high on for quite some time. Time will only tell if those gambles pay off. The 2012 Seahawks draft class represents a substantial roll of the dice for a team on the brink of success but could just as easily collapse back into mediocrity. Yet, as the saying goes: fortune favors the bold.

Pete Carroll and John Schneider made some very bold moves this draft weekend. Now they—and Seahawk fans around the world—can only hope that fortune is soon to follow.

The 2012 Draft Class: Initial Impressions

Bruce Irvin, DE/OLB, West Virginia—1st Round, 15th pick (15th overall)

Marty Lyons of the New York Jets once said that players who can rush the passer don’t have to do anything else to have a long NFL career. If that is the case, we will be hearing about Bruce Irvin for quite some time. The best pure pass rusher in the draft, Irvin has an explosive first step and a wide array of effective pass rush moves despite a lack of coaching (by his own admission.) Irvin is a good outside run defender who rarely lets players beat him to the sidelines. He also shows a surprising toughness when fighting through blockers. Has outstanding athletic ability and a strong work ethic, as evidenced by him beating the odds to get his GED and work his way up through junior college and become a star at West Virginia.

Irvin’s off-field issues have been well documented: dropping out of high school, serving time in juvenile detention, and his arrest a month ago for knocking the magnetic sign off of a delivery car (charges that have since been dismissed.) He would benefit from having a mentor at the professional level to keep him out of trouble. Irvin has a thin frame and probably won’t be able to bulk up much more from his current 245 pounds, which raises questions as to whether he can be anything more than a situational pass rusher in the NFL. Irvin will see action immediately on passing downs from multiple positions with an eye toward developing him as a more complete player in future seasons.

Bobby Wagner, ILB, Utah State—2nd round, 15th pick (47th overall)

Short but not small, Wagner was a three time all-WAC player with excellent football instincts. He has the patience to wait for a play to develop and the closing speed to disrupt that play. Good tackling and coverage abilities with an NFL physique, Wagner was also used extensively as a pass rusher at Utah State and performed well in that role. He has a non-stop motor and leadership abilities; was voted captain by his teammates his senior year and voted Most Outstanding Player at the 2012 Senior Bowl.

Wagner lacks the pure speed to play on the outside and is a little undersized to play in the middle, though he has played bigger than he looks to date in college. He has gotten penetration but not a lot of sacks as a pass rusher. Lack of top-end speed hampers his recovery efforts when caught out of position. Wagner could challenge for playing time at middle linebacker immediately and draw comparisons to former Seahawk Lofa Tatupu.

Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin—3rd round, 12th pick (75th overall)

A pick that was almost as polarizing as Bruce Irvin in the first round, Wilson comes to Seattle with no questions about his athletic ability. He is a stellar passer with great arm strength and accuracy who can make every kind of throw on the run. A smart passer who can evade the pass rush and make plays with his legs. He is also a mature, intelligent athlete with a great work ethic and leadership ability (Wilson was voted team captain within weeks of arriving at Wisconsin for his senior year.) Was successful at North Carolina State and Wisconsin and could have easily been a first round pick…

… if he wasn’t a hair under 5’11”. There is just no way to tell whether he will be able to throw effectively from the pocket at the professional level, though his accuracy did not suffer in the pocket at the collegiate level. Has a tendency to lock onto targets and doesn’t always make the best decisions late in games. It’s difficult to see where he might fit into the Seahawks’ plans as a rookie but he will have every opportunity to compete for the starting job. Regardless, look for Pete Carroll to find ways to get him on the field regardless in the Wildcat or some other substitution package.

Robert Turbin, RB, Utah State—4th round, 11th pick (106th overall)

Turbin is a beast with arms bigger than most people’s legs and has good top end speed as well. He is a reliable receiver out of the backfield and does not fumble often. A downhill zone runner with enough shiftiness to make defenders miss, Turbin rushed for 1,517 yards and 19 touchdowns last season, taking Utah State to their first bowl game since 1997.

The biggest drawback with Turbin’s game is his pass blocking ability: he has poor technique and is often caught off-balance. He missed the entire 2010 season with a torn ACL. Turbin projects as “Beast Mode, Jr.” and should see time right away to spell Marshawn Lynch.

Jaye Howard, DT, Florida—4th round, 19th pick (114th overall)

Howard has great burst off the snap with great foot speed and athletic ability. He clocked a 4.78 40-yard dash time at the Combine. Has lined up at several different positions along the defensive front at Florida. He is quick to the ball carrier and does a good job of getting his hands in the air to knock down passes at the line. Has excellent range and good football instincts.

A very inconsistent player at Florida, Howard can sometimes forget his technique and disappear for several games. May not have the raw power necessary to bull rush offensive lineman at the professional level. Howard is a durable player who should see time Seattle’s defensive tackle rotation if he can motivate himself to play up to his potential; he will be as good as he wants to be.

Korey Toomer, LB, Idaho—5th round, 19th pick (154th overall)

Running the 40 in 4.53 seconds and posting a 42-inch vertical jump at Idaho’s Pro Day, Toomer got everyone’s attention despite not being invited to the Combine. He has played a multitude of positions, everything from linebacker to defensive end to fullback (and even scored three touchdowns against Utah State.) Toomer is a big player with excellent closing speed and coverage skills.

Toomer is also extremely green and was only a one-year starter at Idaho after transferring from junior college. He will need some time to develop at linebacker but his size and speed could earn him a spot on the 53-man roster this season as a special teamer.

Jeremy Lane, CB, Northwestern State (LA)—6th round, 2nd pick (172nd overall)

Another big, fast defensive back with excellent cover skills and the ability to play press coverage, Lane moves and hits well. He has long arms and can jam receivers at the line. Lane is also a willing run defender and plays with an attitude. Performed well and looked like he belonged when they played teams like LSU and SMU.

A thin frame (5’11”, 175 pounds) means he is at risk of being overpowered. He sometimes tries to get too physical with his jam and will miss the receiver on occasion. Lane is a developing prospect from a small school and as such won’t see a lot of time on defense his rookie season, but should earn a roster spot as a special teamer and has the smarts and ability to grow into an NFL corner in time.

Winston Guy, S, Kentucky—6th round, 11th pick (181st overall)

Guy is a big, versatile defensive back who played cornerback and safety for two years at Kentucky before switching to outside linebacker his senior year. He will be used as a safety with Seattle. He is best as an in-the-box run defender with good gap discipline and football intelligence. Guy takes good angles to the ball carrier and is a strong tackler.

While he has good change of direction ability, Guy lacks top end speed and coverage instincts. He could probably run with NFL tight ends but not with receivers. He tends to play with his pads too high when dropping into coverage. A backup strong safety that will have to contribute on special teams to make the final roster.

J. R. Sweezy, DT (projects to G), NC State—7th round, 18th pick (225th overall)

With the pick that Seattle got from the Raiders in trade for Aaron Curry, the Seahawks decided that the best value at offensive line was someone who played on the defensive line in college. After being told by his college coaches that Sweezy could also play guard, Seattle flew offensive line coach Tom Cable out for a private workout and came away impressed with Sweezy’s athleticism (5.01 40-yard dash time, 9’5” broad jump and 36” vertical jump at the Combine.) A big kid with long arms, Sweezy could just be scratching the surface of his potential.

Since he is a projection he is obviously a very raw player at his new position. Sweezy has also had some off-field issues involved possession of marijuana and attacking a shuttle bus driver (in both cases, charges were later dismissed.) As a defensive tackle his foot speed was mediocre and he was stiff in his movements. Sweezy should make the final roster based on potential barring a poor offseason, but it will be some time before he is polished enough to make any kind of significant impact.

Greg Scruggs, DE, Louisville—7th round, 25th pick (232nd overall)

A tough, competitive player, Scruggs plays with a good deal of quickness and change of direction ability. He is a hard worker and a fluid athlete that has the ability to get outside the box and make plays in the flat.

Scruggs was only a part-time starter for the last two seasons and never was a consistent force on the defensive line. He lacks the bulk to play inside but does not have the top-end speed necessary to be a pure edge rusher. Could earn a spot on the defensive line rotation but will have to put together an impressive showing this summer to crack the 53-man roster.

2012 Undrafted Free Agents

Phil Bates, WR, Ohio: A converted quarterback with deceptive speed (4.5 40-yard dash time), Bates is an agile player with good athletic ability that will need time to develop.

Rishaw Johnson, G, California University (PA): Johnson is a powerful run blocker with good footwork and technique who will need to improve his pass blocking skills to stick at the professional level.

Jermaine Kearse, WR, Washington: A bit slow off of the snap, but his athleticism, good hands and route running ability could earn Kearse a spot on the final roster.

Jon Opperud, T, Montana: Tall and slow-footed player who relies on technique but lacks the strength to overpower his opponents.

Lavasier Tuinei, WR, Oregon: A big, athletic player (6’4”, 220 pounds) with great hands and the ability to go over the middle, Tuinei does not have great speed but could find a role as an H-back style tight end. Another big receiving target of the sort Pete Carroll has coveted throughout his tenure in Seattle.

Carson Wiggs, K, Purdue: Wiggs has an incredibly strong leg but is not as accurate as you would like to see. He would have been a great kickoff specialist before kickoffs were moved forward to the 35-yard line. Probably just a camp leg.

Also signed: CB London Durham, McNeese State; TE Sean McGrath, Henderson State; DB DeShawn Snead, Portland State; DE Monte Taylor, Cincinnati.

The Road Not Taken

Every draft forces coaches and general managers to make some hard decisions, and this year’s draft will have people second guessing Pete Carroll and John Schneider for months if not years. Here’s a look at some of the decisions Seattle may have struggled with over draft weekend:

Bruce Irvin vs. Ingram, Coples, DeCastro, Jones, etc.: This is the pick that will forever define the Seahawks’ 2012 draft. The Seahawks had their pick of the litter at pass rushing defensive ends and linebackers—as well as a stellar guard prospect in DeCastro—and chose to take a chance on Irvin. If he stays out of trouble and reaches his potential Irvin will be a better pass rusher than Ingram & co. and better value at this pick than DeCastro, but this decision could easily backfire on Carroll and Schneider.

Bobby Wagner + trade vs. Mychal Kendricks: Seattle lost out on the opportunity to draft Kendricks when they traded down five picks with the New York Jets. Wagner is a bigger player and better suited to play inside, whereas Kendricks is faster and probably the better athlete of the two.

Russell Wilson vs. Brandon Brooks: There was no consensus “why didn’t they take that guy?” feeling in the third round, but the Wilson pick is too controversial not to add here. Wilson has the talent to be a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback but his height may keep him from living up to his potential. Brooks was taken with the next pick and is a big, agile guard who could have beefed up some shaky offensive line depth.

Robert Turbin vs. Chris Polk: Seattle finally gets their complimentary back with the first pick of the fourth round and they choose the big back instead of the hometown favorite from Washington. Turbin is a powerful, fast back similar to Marshawn Lynch. Polk is more of a home-run hitter but there is an unconfirmed report that he could be suffering from a degenerative hip condition, which would explain his free fall down draft boards.

Sizing Up the NFC West

Arizona: Michael Floyd goes to the team with the one player almost guaranteed to show him how to grow up to become an NFL receiver and gives the Cardinals another weapon in the passing game. Jamell Fleming rose up draft boards late and is a good zone CB who can play special teams. T Bobby Massie was a steal in the fourth round and should step into the right tackle position from day one. Washington’s Senio Kelemete gives the Cardinals more O-Line depth at tackle, and sixth round pick Ryan Lindley gives them a developmental quarterback to work with.

San Francisco: WR A. J. Jenkins was a bit of a reach in the first round but gives the 49ers another vertical threat at receiver. LaMichael James was the best pick of their draft is a home-run threat and a great change of pace running back to spell Frank Gore. Joe Looney might not start at guard his rookie year but will provide excellent depth and could grow into the starting role eventually. Darius Fleming is another depth guy at linebacker and should be a valuable special teams contributor. Trent Robinson does not have a big frame but has outstanding instincts at safety.

St. Louis: Michael Brockers gives the Rams the run-stuffing DT they have tried and failed to get for years and should start immediately. Bryan Quick is a height-weight-speed guy and a starting wide receiver job will be his to lose. Janoris Jenkins has first-round ability at cornerback and could be a steal in the second round if he can keep his nose clean. RB Isaiah Pead is a small, blazing fast change of pace back that should complement Steven Jackson nicely. Trumaine Johnson gives the Rams another big cornerback. K Greg Zuerlein should be a more than adequate replacement for Josh Brown.

Random Thoughts

• The initial reaction to the Bruce Irvin pick among pundits was almost universally negative, but even “experts” like Mel Kiper have begun to walk back their earlier criticism of Irvin in light of several reports that several teams planned on taking him in the first round. If you read Kiper’s draft grades, even he concedes that Irvin could easily wind up with double digit sacks in his rookie season. That’s as close as we will ever get to an admission that the “experts” overreacted by calling Irvin a “mind-boggling” reach.

• Seriously, though: it’s understandable that Irvin’s past would raise some red flags, but you are talking about a guy who started out his life by robbing a drug house, serving time in juvenile detention and living on the streets only to pull his life together, get his GED, work his way up through the collegiate ranks and be taken in the first round of the NFL draft. That kind of rags-to-riches story is worthy of respect, not derision.

• The on-air scrap between Kiper and Jon Gruden over the selection of Russell Wilson was the most entertaining draft-day catfight since Kiper and Colts director of football operations Bill Tobin in 1994, but it also does a great job of encapsulating the potential upside and downside of this pick. Wilson has all the tools, all the smarts, and is a born leader, but will that be enough to overcome his small stature?

• For all those Seahawk fans who still disagree with the Wilson pick, imagine what Jaguars fans are feeling knowing their team took a PUNTER in the same round.

• Robert Turbin may or may not be a success at the professional level, but after seeing that picture of him at the Combine it’s hard to imagine anybody wanting to tackle that guy. Yikes!

• Agree or disagree with John Schneider’s choices, Seattle did a good job of finding the players they wanted while still managing to trade back and acquire four more late-round picks.

• Shortening the allotted time to make first round picks from fifteen minutes to ten minutes and adopting the rookie pay scale in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement were the two best things that could have happened to the NFL draft. This year’s first round with its multiple trades and fast pace was as good as any in recent memory.

• Maybe it’s petty… okay, there’s no maybe about it, it is petty, but it was fun to hear the news that the Rams had released Josh Brown after drafting his replacement. Congratulations, Josh, you are no longer a “slave to the businessman.”

Conclusion

Pete Carroll and John Schneider have weighed in, the pundits have weighed in, and soon it will be time for the rookie class to prove whether they were worthy of the trust Seattle’s front office placed in them. The Seahawks addressed needs at linebacker and running back in the fourth rounds with players that should be able to contribute immediately. They did not pick up any receivers or offensive linemen (except for Sweezy) in the draft but made up for it with some undrafted free agents who could prove to be steals. But the success or failure of this draft will hinge on the success or failure of Bruce Irvin and Russell Wilson. Their talent and upside cannot be denied, but neither can the risks involved. Drafts like these expose the fallacy of accurately grading draft so soon, as there is just no way to know whether picks like these will pan out until the players actually take the field. In two or three years we will have a better idea of what Seattle got out of its 2012 draft class, but until then it’s just too early to tell.

Preliminary draft grade: Incomplete